Exports surge 24% on AI; ADB lifts 2026 forecast

Thailand's exports reached US$34.62 billion in August, up 24.3% YoY—the strongest pace in 56 months—led by electronics and components tied to global AI investment. Imports also rose sharply, widening the trade gap. The Ministry of Commerce data confirm the tech concentration; non-tech sectors showed little lift.

The Asian Development Bank lifted Thailand's 2026 GDP projection to 2.0% from 1.8%, citing stronger tech exports and 11.6% H1 private investment growth. It trimmed inflation expectations to 2.5%. El Niño and household debt remain downside risks for 2027's 1.9% outlook.

The SET Index closed at 1,607.63 on September 25, up 0.32% on the session, supported by tech earnings and softer US inflation data. Foreign flows remained selective. Delta Electronics reported 23% sales growth, underscoring the earnings concentration in AI-linked names.

Foreign arrivals reached 22.18 million through September 19, down 3.67% YoY, generating ฿1.08 trillion in receipts. China led recovery while long-haul markets softened. Receipts per visitor will determine whether hotel and retail margins improve despite volume shortfalls.

The fund's deficit hit ฿92 billion with daily losses near ฿700 million amid elevated global crude. The government is weighing tax cuts and further subsidy adjustments. Higher energy costs threaten to pass through to consumer prices and SME margins in Q4.

BOI approved Infineon's new Samut Prakan facility for power modules, part of the national semiconductor strategy targeting ฿500 billion in five years. The plant opens October 1 and supports the ฿2.5 trillion 2050 revenue goal. It adds high-skill jobs in the EEC corridor.

Ekniti Nitithanprapas projected 2.5% GDP growth for 2027, aiming for 3% within three years through targeted incentives. Thailand seeks US$80 billion in semiconductors by 2050. The shift reduces reliance on exports alone for sustained expansion.

The cabinet approved a ฿43 billion extension of the co-payment scheme through November to support consumption after the original September 30 expiry. The second phase is smaller than the first ฿120 billion tranche. Retailers and low-income households gain near-term cash flow support.

BIFW2026 runs October 1–11 with runway shows at Siam Center (Oct 1–4, Visionary Stage) and Siam Paragon (Oct 8–11). Emerging Thai designers and international labels present; entry details and tickets via siamcenter.co.th. Focus on regional craft and sustainable collections.

Electronics and components account for the bulk of export growth and listed-company profit gains this year, while non-tech sectors and SMEs see limited spillovers. The divergence explains why headline GDP upgrades have not yet translated into broad credit demand or household spending recovery.